The NDR Explained
The new NDR system for 07-08 will be, at its core, based on the ELO rating system (similar to the system used for rating chess players). Debaters will see individual ratings move up and down based on final placement at tournaments. The bigger the tournament (the higher the ratings of debaters at the tournament) the more a debater can move up or down. Essentially if someone outperforms expectations based on their previous tournament success they will go up, if they underperform they will move down. Expected finish will be based on the debaters latest rating to give the most up to date probability (based on the idea that debaters will often get on a hot/cold streak), but the overall ranking will be based on an average of ratings over time (last X number of tournaments) to give a broader picture of debater performance. Additionally the system will carry over from season to season.
The most exciting facet of the new system is since it only weights tournaments based on the strength of the field, ANY tournament could be included to provide a deeper view of debater success. This could include state tournaments, larger regional tournaments, round robins, or even NFL or NCFL as long as an overall order of finish could be discerned. The system should be able to provide a much better picture of how younger and local talents are doing in the grand scheme of things. The biggest goal of the new NDR is to include results from any tournament we can get our hands on without regard for the prestige of the tournament because we believe tournament importance should be based on the strength of field that show up at a tournament when it happens not on a designation from on high made in the middle of the summer.
*An “expected” percentile is statisically calculated based on the ratings that each debater at the tournament had going into the event (all new debaters start with a rating of 1000, people who have previously been to a tournament have their last rating used)
*All the debaters at a tournament are ranked and given a percentile reflecting how they finished
*If you do better than expected your rating goes up, if you do worse it goes down
*The maximum amount a person can move up or down depends on the size/strength of the tournament fields (which is also tied into the initial ratings)
